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Predictions from Scott Cunningham Most likely Bush: AL, AK, AR, GA, IN, ID, Kansas, KY, LA, MS, Montana, Nebraska, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, Wyoming = 192 electoral votes Most likely Kerry: CA, Conn, Delaware, DC, IL, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, NY, RI, VT = 153 States in play: AZ, CO, FL, Hawaii, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, NV, NH, NJ, NM, OH, OR, PA, WA, Wisconsin I first make these predictions about the swing states. AZ - Bush These predictions are based mainly on Tradesports prices and weekend polls by state. I've pushed states to candidates where there is a fairly significant lead in the prices. I've arbitrarily chosen 20/80 to be my cutoff points. If a stock is around 20, then I give it to Kerry. If it's in the range of 80, I give it to Bush. In closer ones (25/75), I looked at weekend polls to decide the difference. Notice I give Pennsylvania and Hawaii to Kerry. I will not be surprised if Bush wins Hawaii, though. Though Hawaii's stock is at 24-28, and most recent polls have it at a dead heat, I decided to give it to Kerry anyway. But Hawaii has twice elected a Republican president (Nixon 72, Reagan 84) and both times it was re-election. I'm thinking they're senstive to the security concerns from 9/11 because of their separation from the mainland, plus their military bases, plus collective memories of Pearl Harbor. My dad tells me Hawaii got 10 inches of rain today, which he believes could skew it towards Republican, though I don't know why it would affect one party over another. I also gave Penn to Kerry, as Gore won it in 2000, and despite the Republican party's campaigning efforts there seeming to have unprecedented effects on voter turnout, I still give it to Kerry. With Wisconsin, Ohio, New Mexico, Iowa, and Florida still in play, that brings the two candidates to: Kerry = 242 I then make these five predictions about those five states. 1. Florida. In 2000, Florida went to Bush barely. Tradesports has the stock at 53-55. Bush was there a lot during hurricanes, Kerry was unable to get there. Four out of 6 weekend polls have Bush ahead. I give it to Bush this year. 27 electoral votes. (Bush = 254, Kerry=242) 2. Iowa. In 2000, Gore got Iowa, though I don't know how close that race was. This year, Tradesports has Iowa's stock trading at 48-50. Dead heat. I give it to Kerry. 7 electoral votes. (Bush=254, Kerry=249) 3. New Mexico. In 2000, Gore carried NM, althogh this year, I predict it goes the other way. Tradesports has had this stock moving in the upper 50s, with only a few falls which appear to be driven by speculative attacks. Despite 2 of 3 weekend polls showing Kerry to win, I'm giving it to Bush. 5 electoral votes. (Bush=259, Kerry=249). 4. Wisconsin. In 2000, Gore carried Wisconsin. Tradesports has the stock trading in the low 40s. Out of 4 weekend polls, 2 show Bush, 2 show Kerry. I give it to Kerry. 10 electoral votes (Bush=259, Kerry=259). 5. Ohio. The whole race rests on the back of Ohio. There are 21 electoral votes in Ohio. In 2000, Bush won. Ohio has had relatively high unemployment (compared to the entire US) over the last four years. The statewide average unemployment rate was 4.2% in 2001, 5.7% in 2002, and 6.1% in 2003. Currently, the September 2004 unemployment rate in Ohio is 6.0%. It's jumped around that number throughout 2004, never falling below 6%, though, it looks like. The current unemployment rate is 5.4%. Then again, it has been falling over the year, and 175,000 jobs were created in October according to word from the Labor dept. Maybe things are getting better in such a way that Ohioans sense it, and to the degree that local economic conditions is a factor in their voting sentiments, it may be that the gradual trend out of this recession is easing the pain somewhat there. Tradesports, furthermore, has the Ohio contract moving in a band between 49-59. I believe that speculative attacks drove the price down to 49, though. I spoke with someone who has access to more of the detailed data at Tradesports, and apparently, the New Mexico, Ohio and overall-Bush contracts were hit by the same person moving massive volumes of contracts that drove the price briefly down to 49 last week. They've all since rebounded. Ohio fell again yesterday but bounced back, making me believe that someone is shorting Bush stock, temporarily driving the prices down, and traders are purchasing them back driving the price back up. The accurate band appears to be in the mid-to-upper 50s. So, given that Bush won it in 2000, and given the longrun prediction by the futures markets of it to go to Bush, I give Bush Ohio. 20 electoral votes. (Bush=279, Kerry=259) Bush wins with 279 electoral votes to Kerry's 259. Bush carries New Mexico, Florida and Ohio. |